Demanda de turismo internacional en tiempos de COVID-19 en la región de Puno - Perú
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Revista de coyuntura y perspectiva
Abstract
La industria del turismo es de importancia en la región de Puno pues de ella se benefician cientos de personas. Sin embargo, ante la medida de aislamiento social producto de la pandemia mundial del COVID-19, este sector de la economía se perjudicó drásticamente ya que para el segundo trimestre de 2020 el total de arribos cayó en 100%. En este sentido es necesario conocer los arribos futuros ante ausencia de la pandemia para la estimación de las pérdidas y estrategias de reactivación. El objetivo del trabajo es conocer el comportamiento de la demanda de turismo internacional en la región de Puno y proyectarla a futuro haciendo uso de modelos de series de tiempo con información mensual del período 2003 a 2019. Los resultados de la investigación revelaron que el modelo SARIMA (6,1,24)(1,0,1)12 es el de mayor eficiencia para el modelamiento y proyección del turismo en Puno.
The tourism industry is important in the Puno region as hundreds of people benefit from it. However, in the face of the measure of social isolation resulting from the global pandemic of COVID-19, this sector of the economy was drastically damaged, since for the second quarter of 2020 the total arrivals fell by 100%. In this sense, it is necessary to know the future arrivals in the absence of the pandemic to estimate the losses and reactivation strategies. The objective of the work is to know the behavior of the demand for international tourism in the Puno region and forecast it into the future using time series models with monthly information from the period 2003 to 2019. The results of the investigation revealed that the SARIMA (6,1,24) (1,0,1)12 model is the most efficient for the modeling and forecasting of tourism in Puno.
The tourism industry is important in the Puno region as hundreds of people benefit from it. However, in the face of the measure of social isolation resulting from the global pandemic of COVID-19, this sector of the economy was drastically damaged, since for the second quarter of 2020 the total arrivals fell by 100%. In this sense, it is necessary to know the future arrivals in the absence of the pandemic to estimate the losses and reactivation strategies. The objective of the work is to know the behavior of the demand for international tourism in the Puno region and forecast it into the future using time series models with monthly information from the period 2003 to 2019. The results of the investigation revealed that the SARIMA (6,1,24) (1,0,1)12 model is the most efficient for the modeling and forecasting of tourism in Puno.
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Vol. 6, No. 1